About

Summary of the project

Observed climate change has already led to an increase in extreme precipitation events in the Alps. These events, when they also directly impact society (e.g., financial losses and/or human casualties) or ecosystems (e.g., loss of forest resources), can be referred to as High Impact Precipitation Events (HIPEs). Understanding the influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC) on the occurrence of these phenomena is essential for formulating appropriate responses and adaptation strategies in the Alpine regions. Thus, the HIPEAtMount “Seal of Excellence” project funded by the Province of Bozen/Bolzano aims to 1) Establish a systematic process to detect and monitor HIPEs occurring in the Alps; 2) Develop a statistical extreme event attribution (EEA) framework tailored to Alpine and, more in general, mountain settings in order to provide rapid and physically consistent answers to whether ACC has exacerbated the probability of occurrence and intensity of a particular HIPE; and 3) Quantify the change in probability of specific HIPEs in the future climate of the 21th century. These objectives will be addressed by making use of the latest advances in climate information, including the most complete and up to date sets of in-situ observations and reanalysis data, on one hand, and high-resolution climate models, better known as convection permitting models (CPMs), on the other. HIPEAtMount will equip policymakers, stakeholders, and the scientific community with actionable insights for effective climate adaptation strategies. Moreover, the project's impact extends beyond the Alps, providing a benchmark for studies in other temperate mountain systems around the globe.

Overview of the workpackages

WP1: Detecting and monitoring HIPEs over the Alps. (Months 1-7)

HIPEAtMount will start by creating a ranking of HIPEs for the Alps and characterise the physical processes involved in their occurrence in past and present climate. This database will serve as a reference to select several cases of study in the second and third WPs. The first version of the dataset will be included in the submitted scientific paper related to this WP delivered at the beginning of the second quarter of the project.

WP2: EEA of specific HIPEs under observed ACC (Months 8-15)

The development of an EEA framework, which forms the basis for examining the role of observed ACC in HIPE occurrence in the Alps, will start in the second part of the first year of the project and will last for 8 months.

WP3: Quantifying changes in HIPEs in future climate (Months 16-23)

This WP is devoted to accurately estimate the future likelihood and intensity of specific HIPEs in the Alps with the use of CPMs. A training period on the use of both postprocessing and evaluation CMP techniques will be spent at the ETH (Switzerland) under the 3-month secondment. Additional refinements will be made to the EEA framework adapted to CPM’s characteristics in collaboration with the ETH supervisor beyond the secondment.